Robert FitzRoy

Surveying the sky through a window, looking west, the view is of uniform light grey cloud with a few patches of blue in the distance. For now, a dry, mild July morning, but pleasant. How about this afternoon? A walk through the nearby fields down to the river might be agreeable, but will the changeable British weather cooperate? Summer showers? A sudden thunderstorm? A cold wind from the north?

Elementary questions, immediately resolved in a few seconds via an app: 23∞ C, dry for the rest of the day, light winds from the west, and sunset at 21.11. Time to don the walking boots. This simple enquiry is supported by powerful software models, advanced mathematics, and more than a century of meteorological research. All brought to our fingertips. Weather advisories, often after the television news, a staple for decades, still exist.

Weather forecasts in the modern sense began in the 19th century.

Before the forecast

How did all this begin? For many centuries our forebears must have wondered about tomorrow’s conditions without possessing the measurements and mathematics to make meaningful links. Seafarers and farmers would have been appreciative of reliable projections.

Weather forecasts in the modern sense began in the 19th century, pioneered by an energetic Royal Navy officer named Robert Fitzroy. Indeed, he is credited with coining the very word, ‘forecast’.

The Beagle and Darwin

Commonly, Fitzroy remains in our collective consciousness for his role in Charles Darwin’s five-year circumnavigation that accumulated evidence for his later evolutionary revelations in On the Origin of Species. The vessel, HMS Beagle, was commanded by Fitzroy, who held strong religious beliefs. Despite being physically close companions for years, Darwin’s thesis created an intellectual and spiritual rift, causing Fitzroy persistent anguish.

Later, in 1843 CE, he became Governor of New Zealand. A challenging role because he endeavoured to protect Māori rights from ambitious, land-hungry British settlers. They lobbied against him in Britain, accusing him of bias and seeking an acquiescent replacement. Not an easy tenure.

Storm warnings

Returning to the weather, an essential component was the newly available telegraph. Past data from ship’s logbooks and real-time barometric readings from coastal stations enabled correlations and predictions. After retirement from active duty in 1854 CE, Fitzroy became an early meteorologist and devised a storm warning system, the forerunner of daily weather forecasts. Already elected to the Royal Society, his supporters including Darwin, he was invited to head up a new department focussing on weather data. From this modest beginning, the Meteorological Office grew. He invented barometers and standardised weather reporting methods. Weather forecasts first appeared in The Times in 1861 CE. Storm warning cones were hoisted at major ports when a gale was expected; ships were ordered not to sail.

Despite the imperfections of a nascent science, his work saved countless lives at sea.

The Shipping Forecast

From 1925 CE, the BBC began broadcasting the Shipping Forecast: four daily bulletins. Of better quality and complemented by digital sources, a century later the BBC is still broadcasting these reports. Recently celebrated by the Economist as a “national treasure”.

A national treasure

Perhaps Fitzroy was another national treasure, despite a demanding career and premature demise. Now, rivers, ports, mountain peaks, a conifer, and even a dolphin bear his name. In 2002 CE, the Shipping Forecast sea area in the north-east Atlantic labelled Finisterre was renamed Fitzroy.

He would have liked this.